← Coverage
Every midterm race the exchanges list, read every hour, with a Sparket.AI estimate that filters the noise out of the venues’ prices. This file follows the race for Senate control. It is a live forecast: the race is graded, and every source on it scored, once results are in after Nov 3. As of .
Our estimate against the marketsChance Democrats control the Senate after the election: the Sparket.AI estimate at each hourly update, beside Kalshi and Polymarket. The estimate smooths short-lived swings in either venue rather than chasing them.
Seat-count ladderThe chance of each final Democratic seat count, from Kalshi’s seat markets (prices normalized to 100%). With the Vice President breaking ties for Republicans, Democrats need 51.
Cross-check: the seat ladder puts a Democratic majority at 61.5%; Kalshi’s own Senate-control market says 61.5%. Two separate sets of contracts, one consistent answer.
Margin-of-victory ladderThe national House popular vote: Kalshi’s price that Democrats win it by at least each margin, with a normal curve fitted through them. The curve lands within 4 points of every line, so one center and one spread describe the whole ladder.
Cross-check: Kalshi’s House seat ladder puts Democrats at 218+ seats at 92.5%; its House-control market says 90.1%. A gap of 2.4 points between two markets that should agree — the kind of disagreement we flag rather than pass through.
CoverageEvery 2026 race listed on the exchanges, by office. Prices are read hourly; the Sparket.AI estimate runs on two-party races today and widens as more races are matched.
Graded after Nov 3: every source’s final prices on every race, scored the same way as the sports sources in the source report.