← Coverage
Sample · Game file · College football
Kansas JayhawksAway
24
–
41
Utah UtesHome
Start . Every source that priced this game, its last price before the start, and how it graded once it was final, next to the Sparket.AI price built from all of them. Source names are withheld; ranks match the source report.
16Sources that priced it
47Prices across moneyline, spread, total
435Times we re-priced it before the start
85.5%Our price on Utes · they won
Our price against the marketsUtes win probability before the start: the Sparket.AI price at each of its 435 updates, beside the exchanges and the sportsbook consensus as they moved. One blended price that keeps pace with the sharpest markets.
Sparket.AIKalshiPolymarketSportsbook consensus
Final-margin distributionThe chance of each final margin implied by our 31-line spread ladder as of . Final margin: Utes by 17.
Jayhawks winUtes winFinal margin
Spread ladderOur fair price for Utes covering each line, beside Kalshi's bid and ask as of , our last update before the start. Our price sat inside or within a cent of Kalshi's quote on 19 of 31 lines.
Sparket.AI fair priceKalshi bid–askFinal result
Total ladderOur fair price for the over on each line, beside Kalshi's bid and ask as of , our last update before the start. Our price sat inside or within a cent of Kalshi's quote on 7 of 19 lines.
Sparket.AI fair priceKalshi bid–askFinal result
MoneylineWin probability for each side. ✓ when the side it favored happened.
| Source | Jayhawks | Utes | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 14 sources, weighted by their scores | 14.5% | 85.5% | ✓ |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 13.6% | 86.4% | ✓ |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | 13.7% | 86.2% | ✓ |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 14.5% | 85.5% | ✓ |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | 13.5% | 86.5% | ✓ |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | 14.7% | 85.3% | ✓ |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | 16.0% | 84.0% | ✓ |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | 15.8% | 84.2% | ✓ |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | 15.9% | 84.1% | ✓ |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | 15.3% | 84.7% | ✓ |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | 15.5% | 84.5% | ✓ |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | 16.0% | 84.0% | ✓ |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | 16.0% | 84.0% | ✓ |
| Source 02 P opening line · | 14.8% | 85.2% | ✓ |
| Models | |||
| Source 17 C model · | 12.8% | 87.2% | ✓ |
| Source 90 P model · | 16.1% | 83.9% | ✓ |
| Source 91 E model · | 20.7% | 79.3% | ✓ |
SpreadEach source's line and its price on Jayhawks covering, and what happened at that line. Final margin: Utes by 17.
| Source | Line | Jayhawks covers | Covered? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | Utes -15.5 | 49.5% | No |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | Utes -16.5 | 51.8% | No |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | Utes -14.5 | 48.5% | No |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | Jayhawks -17.5 | 49.6% | No |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | Utes -15.5 | 50.0% | No |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | Utes -15.5 | 50.0% | No |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | Utes -15.5 | 49.7% | No |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | Utes -15.5 | 50.4% | No |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | Utes -15.5 | 50.0% | No |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | Utes -15.5 | 50.0% | No |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | Utes -16 | 50.0% | No |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | Utes -15.5 | 50.0% | No |
| Source 02 P opening line · | Utes -16.5 | 50.0% | No |
| Models | |||
| Source 17 C model · | Utes -16.5 | 50.0% | No |
| Source 90 P model · | Utes -14.6 | 16.1% | No |
| Source 91 E model · | Utes -15.5 | 20.7% | No |
TotalEach source's line and its price on the under, and what happened at that line. Final total: 65.
| Source | Line | Under | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 14 sources | 49.5 | 44.6% | Over |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 50.5 | 52.5% | Over |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | 49.5 | 50.5% | Over |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 49.5 | 50.5% | Over |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | 49.5 | 50.5% | Over |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | 49.5 | 50.9% | Over |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | 49.5 | 50.4% | Over |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | 50 | 49.5% | Over |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | 49.5 | 49.4% | Over |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | 49.5 | 50.4% | Over |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | 49.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | 49.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | 49.5 | 50.4% | Over |
| Source 02 P opening line · | 52.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Models | |||
| Source 17 C model · | 51.3 | 50.0% | Over |
| Source 90 P model · | 61.3 | 50.0% | Over |
Spread and total prices sit on fixed lines, so a price above 50% is not always a pick; every price is scored by its probability, and the source report rolls those scores up.
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