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Sample · Game file · NBA
Chicago BullsAway
128
–
133
Denver NuggetsHome
Start . Every source that priced this game, its last price before the start, and how it graded once it was final, next to the Sparket.AI price built from all of them. Source names are withheld; ranks match the source report.
13Sources that priced it
39Prices across moneyline, spread, total
21Times we re-priced it before the start
70.8%Our price on Nuggets · they won
Our price against the marketsNuggets win probability before the start: the Sparket.AI price at each of its 21 updates, beside the exchanges and the sportsbook consensus as they moved. One blended price that keeps pace with the sharpest markets.
Sparket.AIKalshiSportsbook consensus
Final-margin distributionThe chance of each final margin implied by our 25-line spread ladder as of . Final margin: Nuggets by 5.
Bulls winNuggets winFinal margin
Spread ladderOur fair price for Nuggets covering each line, beside Kalshi's bid and ask as of , our last update before the start. Our price sat inside or within a cent of Kalshi's quote on 21 of 25 lines.
Sparket.AI fair priceKalshi bid–askFinal result
Total ladderOur fair price for the over on each line, beside Kalshi's bid and ask as of , our last update before the start. Our price sat inside or within a cent of Kalshi's quote on 4 of 21 lines.
Sparket.AI fair priceKalshi bid–askFinal result
MoneylineWin probability for each side. ✓ when the side it favored happened.
| Source | Bulls | Nuggets | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 11 sources, weighted by their scores | 29.2% | 70.8% | ✓ |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 29.6% | 70.4% | ✓ |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 30.5% | 69.5% | ✓ |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | 30.5% | 69.5% | ✓ |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | 27.6% | 72.4% | ✓ |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | 26.6% | 73.4% | ✓ |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | 27.1% | 72.9% | ✓ |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | 26.5% | 73.5% | ✓ |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | 26.7% | 73.3% | ✓ |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | 26.6% | 73.4% | ✓ |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | 26.6% | 73.4% | ✓ |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | 26.6% | 73.4% | ✓ |
| Source 02 P opening line · | 27.8% | 72.2% | ✓ |
| Models | |||
| Source 93 E model · | 32.9% | 67.1% | ✓ |
SpreadEach source's line and its price on Bulls covering, and what happened at that line. Final margin: Nuggets by 5.
| Source | Line | Bulls covers | Covered? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | Nuggets -8.5 | 53.5% | Yes |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | Nuggets -7.5 | 48.5% | Yes |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | Nuggets -8.5 | 53.5% | Yes |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | Nuggets -8.5 | 49.1% | Yes |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | Nuggets -8.5 | 50.4% | Yes |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | Nuggets -7.5 | 49.0% | Yes |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | Nuggets -8.5 | 50.0% | Yes |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | Nuggets -8.5 | 48.9% | Yes |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | Nuggets -8.5 | 50.0% | Yes |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | Nuggets -8.5 | 51.1% | Yes |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | Nuggets -8.5 | 50.4% | Yes |
| Source 02 P opening line · | Nuggets -7.5 | 48.9% | Yes |
| Models | |||
| Source 93 E model · | Nuggets -6 | 50.0% | Yes |
TotalEach source's line and its price on the under, and what happened at that line. Final total: 261.
| Source | Line | Under | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 11 sources | 233.5 | 51.1% | Over |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 232.5 | 44.6% | Over |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 234.5 | 48.5% | Over |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | 232.5 | 43.3% | Over |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | 233.5 | 50.4% | Over |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | 234.5 | 50.4% | Over |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | 232.5 | 49.7% | Over |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | 233.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | 233.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | 233.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | 234.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | 234.5 | 50.4% | Over |
| Source 02 P opening line · | 232.5 | 50.0% | Over |
| Models | |||
| Source 93 E model · | 230 | 50.0% | Over |
Spread and total prices sit on fixed lines, so a price above 50% is not always a pick; every price is scored by its probability, and the source report rolls those scores up.
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