← Coverage
Sample · Game file · Premier League
Manchester CityAway
3
–
0
LiverpoolHome
Start . Every source that priced this match, its last price before the start, and how it graded once it was final, next to the Sparket.AI price built from all of them. Source names are withheld; ranks match the source report.
15Sources that priced it
39Prices across match result, spread, total
231Times we re-priced it before the start
44.0%Our price on City · they won
Our price against the marketsLiverpool win probability before the start: the Sparket.AI price at each of its 231 updates, beside the exchanges and the sportsbook consensus as they moved. One blended price that keeps pace with the sharpest markets.
Sparket.AIKalshiPolymarket
Match resultWin probability for each outcome. ✓ when the outcome it favored happened.
| Source | City | Draw | Liverpool | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 15 sources, weighted by their scores | 44.0% | 26.2% | 29.8% | ✓ |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | ||||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 48.0% | 25.8% | 26.3% | ✓ |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | 47.3% | 25.4% | 27.4% | ✓ |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 47.7% | 25.6% | 26.6% | ✓ |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | 47.7% | 25.6% | 26.6% | ✓ |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | 47.7% | 25.6% | 26.6% | ✓ |
| Sportsbooks | ||||
| Source 05 A sportsbook · | 44.9% | 25.7% | 29.3% | ✓ |
| Source 09 B sportsbook · | 44.5% | 26.6% | 29.0% | ✓ |
| Source 13 C sportsbook · | 45.4% | 25.8% | 28.9% | ✓ |
| Source 15 C sportsbook · | 43.2% | 26.8% | 30.0% | ✓ |
| Source 24 C sportsbook · | 36.3% | 25.9% | 37.8% | ✗ |
| Models | ||||
| Source 17 C model · | 22.5% | 23.6% | 53.9% | ✗ |
| Source 37 D model · | 45.0% | 28.0% | 27.0% | ✓ |
| Source 56 P model · | 44.0% | 25.0% | 31.0% | ✓ |
| Source 58 P model · | 42.0% | 25.0% | 33.0% | ✓ |
| Source 86 P model · | 44.6% | 25.7% | 29.7% | ✓ |
SpreadEach source's line and its price on City covering, and what happened at that line. Final margin: City by 3.
| Source | Line | City covers | Covered? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | Liverpool -1.5 | 90.3% | Yes |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | City -1.5 | 25.5% | Yes |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | City -1.5 | 25.5% | Yes |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | City -1.5 | 25.5% | Yes |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | City -0.5 | 47.8% | Yes |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 05 A sportsbook · | City -0.25 | 51.1% | Yes |
| Source 09 B sportsbook · | City -0.25 | 51.9% | Yes |
| Source 15 C sportsbook · | City -0.5 | 44.7% | Yes |
| Source 24 C sportsbook · | City -0.5 | 47.4% | Yes |
| Models | |||
| Source 17 C model · | Liverpool -0.7 | 50.0% | Yes |
| Source 37 D model · | Pick'em | 45.0% | Yes |
| Source 56 P model · | City -1 | 50.0% | Yes |
TotalEach source's line and its price on the under, and what happened at that line. Final total: 3.
| Source | Line | Under | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 15 sources | 2.5 | 39.2% | Over |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 3.5 | 63.8% | Under |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | 2.5 | 41.5% | Over |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 2.5 | 41.5% | Over |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | 2.5 | 41.5% | Over |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | 2.5 | 41.5% | Over |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 05 A sportsbook · | 3 | 51.9% | Push |
| Source 09 B sportsbook · | 3 | 52.6% | Push |
| Source 15 C sportsbook · | 2.5 | 41.3% | Over |
| Source 24 C sportsbook · | 2.5 | 39.2% | Over |
| Models | |||
| Source 17 C model · | 2.78 | 50.0% | Over |
| Source 37 D model · | 2 | 50.0% | Over |
| Source 56 P model · | 3 | 50.0% | Push |
Spread and total prices sit on fixed lines, so a price above 50% is not always a pick; every price is scored by its probability, and the source report rolls those scores up.
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