← Coverage
Sample · Game file · NFL
Minnesota VikingsAway
23
–
13
New Orleans SaintsHome
Start . Every source that priced this game, its last price before the start, and how it graded once it was final, next to the Sparket.AI price built from all of them. Source names are withheld; ranks match the source report.
23Sources that priced it
58Prices across moneyline, spread, total
393Times we re-priced it before the start
57.3%Our price on Vikings · they won
Our price against the marketsSaints win probability before the start: the Sparket.AI price at each of its 393 updates, beside the exchanges and the sportsbook consensus as they moved. One blended price that keeps pace with the sharpest markets.
Sparket.AIKalshiPolymarketSportsbook consensus
Final-margin distributionThe chance of each final margin implied by our 24-line spread ladder as of . Final margin: Vikings by 10.
Vikings winSaints winFinal margin
Spread ladderOur fair price for Saints covering each line, beside Kalshi's bid and ask as of , our last update before the start. Our price sat inside or within a cent of Kalshi's quote on 16 of 24 lines.
Sparket.AI fair priceKalshi bid–askFinal result
Total ladderOur fair price for the over on each line, beside Kalshi's bid and ask as of , our last update before the start. Our price sat inside or within a cent of Kalshi's quote on 6 of 19 lines.
Sparket.AI fair priceKalshi bid–askFinal result
MoneylineWin probability for each side. ✓ when the side it favored happened.
| Source | Vikings | Saints | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 19 sources, weighted by their scores | 57.3% | 42.7% | ✓ |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 56.3% | 43.7% | ✓ |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | 55.6% | 44.4% | ✓ |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 55.5% | 44.5% | ✓ |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | 55.5% | 44.5% | ✓ |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | 55.5% | 44.5% | ✓ |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | 55.1% | 44.9% | ✓ |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | 56.3% | 43.7% | ✓ |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | 54.3% | 45.7% | ✓ |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | 55.1% | 44.9% | ✓ |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | 55.8% | 44.2% | ✓ |
| Source 40 D sportsbook · | 54.4% | 45.6% | ✓ |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | 56.6% | 43.4% | ✓ |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | 55.6% | 44.4% | ✓ |
| Source 81 E sportsbook · | 55.3% | 44.7% | ✓ |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | 56.3% | 43.7% | ✓ |
| Source 02 P opening line · | 52.2% | 47.8% | ✓ |
| Models | |||
| Source 16 C model · | 75.2% | 24.8% | ✓ |
| Source 17 C model · | 59.8% | 40.2% | ✓ |
| Source 91 E model · | 54.0% | 46.0% | ✓ |
| Experts | |||
| Source 95 E expert picks · | 60.0% | 40.0% | ✓ |
| Crowd | |||
| Source 27 C crowd · | 56.4% | 43.6% | ✓ |
SpreadEach source's line and its price on Vikings covering, and what happened at that line. Final margin: Vikings by 10.
| Source | Line | Vikings covers | Covered? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | Vikings -1.5 | 52.8% | Yes |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | Vikings -2.5 | 49.8% | Yes |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | Vikings -2.5 | 49.5% | Yes |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | Vikings -2.5 | 49.5% | Yes |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | Vikings -2.5 | 49.5% | Yes |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 50.0% | Yes |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 50.4% | Yes |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 49.5% | Yes |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 49.6% | Yes |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 50.4% | Yes |
| Source 40 D sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 47.0% | Yes |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 50.2% | Yes |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 51.1% | Yes |
| Source 81 E sportsbook · | Vikings -2.5 | 50.0% | Yes |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | Vikings -2.5 | 50.4% | Yes |
| Source 02 P opening line · | Vikings -1.5 | 48.9% | Yes |
| Models | |||
| Source 17 C model · | Vikings -3.2 | 50.0% | Yes |
| Source 38 D model · | Saints -1.5 | 25.0% | Yes |
| Source 91 E model · | Vikings -1.23 | 50.0% | Yes |
| Experts | |||
| Source 39 D expert picks · | Vikings -2.5 | 25.0% | Yes |
TotalEach source's line and its price on the under, and what happened at that line. Final total: 36.
| Source | Line | Under | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparket.AI price blend of 19 sources | 41.5 | 50.0% | Under |
| Prediction markets & exchanges | |||
| Source 03 A prediction market · | 42.5 | 53.3% | Under |
| Source 04 A prediction market · | 41.5 | 50.8% | Under |
| Source 08 B prediction market · | 41.5 | 50.5% | Under |
| Source 19 C prediction market · | 41.5 | 49.5% | Under |
| Source 51 D prediction market · | 41.5 | 50.5% | Under |
| Sportsbooks | |||
| Source 12 B sportsbook · | 41.5 | 50.0% | Under |
| Source 18 C sportsbook · | 41.5 | 50.4% | Under |
| Source 26 C sportsbook · | 42 | 50.1% | Under |
| Source 34 D sportsbook · | 41.5 | 49.4% | Under |
| Source 36 D sportsbook · | 41.5 | 50.2% | Under |
| Source 40 D sportsbook · | 42 | 47.9% | Under |
| Source 41 D sportsbook · | 41.5 | 50.2% | Under |
| Source 46 D sportsbook · | 41.5 | 50.0% | Under |
| Source 81 E sportsbook · | 41.5 | 50.0% | Under |
| Consensus & opening lines | |||
| Source 01 P consensus line · | 41.5 | 50.4% | Under |
| Source 02 P opening line · | 44.5 | 50.0% | Under |
| Models | |||
| Source 17 C model · | 41 | 50.0% | Under |
Spread and total prices sit on fixed lines, so a price above 50% is not always a pick; every price is scored by its probability, and the source report rolls those scores up.
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