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Source 04 · prediction market
What a customer sees for one source: one score from 300 to 850, the five pillars it is built from, how it rates in each sport and bet type, and the graded games behind it. This is a real source's live file, computed . Its name is withheld.
684Score (300–850)
ATier · A 680+, B 656+, C 618+, D 578+, E below
4 of 97Rank among rated sources
2,148Games graded, last 30 days
How the score is builtEach pillar reads 0–1 against a no-skill point of 0.5, is pulled toward 0.5 when evidence is thin, then weighted. Nothing is fitted.
| Pillar | Weight | Reading | After evidence | vs. no skill | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy Were its picks right | 35% | 0.646 | 0.617 | 2,148 graded games | |
| Sharpness Did the closing price move its way | 35% | 0.721 | 0.688 | 2,161 graded games | |
| Originality Its own view, not an echo of the market | 15% | 0.466 | 0.468 | 51,230 price changes | |
| Reliability Priced on slate days | 10% | 0.887 | 0.706 | 373 slate days | |
| Coverage Share of the slate priced | 5% | 0.714 | 0.698 | 2,612 games priced |
By sport, league and bet typeRated only where it has evidence; each sport averages its leagues. A grey P is provisional: fewer than 20 graded games.
| Sport · league | Overall | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 730 A | — | — | — |
| ↳ College football | 750 A | 779 A | 738 A | 733 A |
| ↳ NFL | 632 C | 619 C | 602 D | 674 B |
| Baseball | 650 C | — | — | — |
| ↳ MLB | 650 C | 641 C | 673 B | 635 C |
| Soccer | 608 D | — | — | — |
| ↳ MLS | 599 D | 550 E | 645 C | 604 D |
| ↳ Serie A | 622 C | 561 E | 690 A | 616 D |
| ↳ Premier League | 610 D | 556 E | 676 B | 598 D |
| ↳ Ligue 1 | 621 P | 609 P | 645 P | 609 P |
| ↳ La Liga | 582 P | 560 P | 589 P | 598 P |
| ↳ UEFA Champions League | 595 P | 588 P | 588 P | 609 P |
| ↳ Bundesliga | 579 P | 576 P | 570 P | 591 P |
| Tennis | 671 B | — | — | — |
| ↳ WTA | 666 B | 666 B | — | — |
| ↳ ATP | 683 A | 683 A | — | — |
Score over timeOne reading a day since scoring by sport and league began, with the tier bands in force.
The evidenceWhat sits behind sharpness, originality and reach.
Its own moves the market then followed63%
2,389 of 3,771 times it priced away from the market, the market moved to meet it.
Moves that only echoed the market47%
13,802 of 29,121 price changes over 1,072 games.
Share of the slate priced68%
2,612 of 3,854 games; on 332 of 373 slate days (89%).
ReceiptsIts most recent graded games. Prices are the home side's win probability: the source's, the market's when it quoted, and the market's close. Closing value is positive when the close moved its way.
| Game | Matchup | Quoted | Its price | Market then | Close | Closing value | Leaned | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UEFA Champions League | Napoli @ Villarreal | 5.8d before | 43.7% | 43.0% | 43.7% | +0.7¢ | Villarreal | won |
UEFA Champions League | Lille @ Arsenal | 5.8d before | 79.1% | 78.9% | 80.9% | +2.0¢ | with the market | — |
UEFA Champions League | Barcelona @ Galatasaray | 5.8d before | 9.5% | 9.5% | 11.4% | +2.0¢ | with the market | — |
UEFA Champions League | Club Brugge @ Internazionale | 5.8d before | 77.9% | 78.1% | 78.9% | -0.8¢ | with the market | — |
UEFA Champions League | PSV Eindhoven @ RB Leipzig | 5.8d before | 48.7% | 48.2% | 61.8% | +13.6¢ | RB Leipzig | won |
UEFA Champions League | Manchester United @ Atlético Madrid | 5.8d before | 44.3% | 45.3% | 54.2% | -9.0¢ | Manchester United | lost |
WTA | Mia Ristic @ Bianca Andreescu | 2.5d before | 87.5% | 84.0% | 79.5% | -4.5¢ | Bianca Andreescu | won |
UEFA Champions League | Sporting CP @ Lens | 5.7d before | 37.9% | 38.0% | 38.3% | -0.3¢ | with the market | — |
WTA | Elisa Visentin @ Dominika Salkova | 2.4d before | 87.0% | 92.0% | 97.0% | -5.0¢ | Elisa Visentin | lost |
WTA | Milana Ivantsiv @ Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 19h before | 98.5% | 97.5% | 98.0% | +0.5¢ | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | won |
Where it sitsThe top of the board this source is ranked on. Bars show each pillar against the no-skill point.
| # | Source | Score | Tier | Accuracy | Sharpness | Originality | Reliability | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Source 01 consensus line | 703 | Prov. | |||||
| 2 | Source 02 opening line | 701 | Prov. | |||||
| 3 | Source 03 prediction market | 686 | A | |||||
| 4 | Source 04 prediction market | 684 | A | |||||
| 5 | Source 05 sportsbook | 680 | A | |||||
| 6 | Source 06 model | 678 | B | |||||
| 7 | Source 07 model | 671 | B | |||||
| 8 | Source 08 prediction market | 662 | B | |||||
| 9 | Source 09 sportsbook | 661 | B | |||||
| 10 | Source 10 sportsbook | 659 | Prov. |
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